COVID-19 severity risk mapping

Mapping risk of severe COVID-19 disease

Rationale

Individuals respond differently to infection with SARS-CoV-2 depending on a range of risk factors for severe disease. These include, but are not limited to, age, smoker status, hypertension, respiratory illness and weight. Understanding how these characteristics vary among a population, and where they cluster, is important for understanding which populations are particularly vulnerable to severe disease, which hospitals may become overburdened and which interventions should be prioritized.

Our approach

Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, combined with our spatial prediction algorithms, we generate high resolution maps of several risk factors. We then combine these into a single estimate of risk using data from studies looking at risk factors for severe disease, such as Ma et al (opens new window).

Where is this being applied?

We are working with the World Bank, who are support the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health's response to COVID-19, to map risk of severe COVID-19 at the district level.

Think this sounds useful?

You can reach us at hello@locational.io to ask any questions, request additions or changes, or arrange a demo. We are actively developing these algorithms and would like to hear from you.